Thursday, August 24, 2006

Oil, war, the dollar and recession/depression = repression

Bob Chapman in Goldseek (via Justin Raimondo's most recent in Counterpunch)

We also believe monetary authorities have no problem with crude oil at $75.00 a barrel. Ex-wars, invasions and occupations oil would be selling at $50.00 a barrel, perhaps less. Oil companies, the main five elitist world oil giants, are making a fortune for their owners, they do not want lower oil prices. A cessation of wars and slightly higher interest rates along with lower money and credit creation would affect a slowdown and oil would fall to a natural demand level. It also should be kept in mind that it is the stated intention of the US-Israeli axis to wage war with Iran and Syria and occupy both countries in order to control Iran’s oil and cement a bloc of countries as a geopolitical base as well as a source of captive oil production and immense profits for transnational conglomerates and other assorted criminal elements, such as the Bush crime family. We might add it is only a matter of time before Venezuela ceases selling oil to the US. That is why bases are being set up in South America surrounding Venezuela. The US knows eventually they will have to invade the country in order to keep the supply of oil flowing into the US. We also believe that if Iran is sanctioned, due to requests from either the US or Israel, that both Iran and Venezuela will cut off oil to the US and cut off oil to world markets. That would send oil up to at least $120.00 a barrel. If conflict with Iran becomes reality, oil could go to $200 a barrel because no shipping would be able to travel through the Straits of the Gulf of Hormuz. That would take gold well over $1,000 an ounce. That could be some time in coming, because Israel was unsuccessful in removing Hezbollah from Lebanon and they now have to settle for a peacekeeping force.


And...

As the dollar falls against other currencies it makes it difficult to compete, thus a falling dollar acts as a deflationary force against Europe and Asia and certainly makes gold more attractive. The reality of global recession hasn’t sunk in yet. People hear what they want to hear, not the difficult voice of reality. At some point soon the US current account deficit will become unsustainable, probably terminated by a falling dollar. We already see diversification out of the dollar. Who wants to get caught holding the bag? The biggest losers will be Japan, China, England and the Middle East oil producers. The flight of foreign capital has already begun and it will accelerate. The dollar-based recession has already begun, it just hasn’t been recognized yet. It will not be different this time. The warning signs are all there...

40 Comments:

Blogger Le Colonel Chabert said...

remember though this is the forecast published by dealers of gold futures.

They say this all the time. You can look back to 2001 at least; its always the time to buy gold futures with dollars, always the last stop before the dollar crisis.

They were saying this when the dollar was at 1.36 to the euro; it actually strengthened to 1.16 since then; today it's at almost 1.28.

Eventually they will be right.

But not before the November elections.

11:20 AM  
Blogger ob fusc said...

Interesting! That did cross my mind actually (that a website called goldseek may advise people to invest in gold rather than currencies) - still I thought they couldn't say that every time with any credibility but it sounds like they do - and this born-yesterday guy fell for it.

Still, I loved the allusion to "the Bush crime family" - I like to have my economic forecasts spliced with otherwise anchronistic hardline political unflinchingness!

Makes sense that the dollar and the US economy will be kept going until at least the November elections, at which point collapse may not be able to be deferred; just a matter of time?

11:35 AM  
Blogger Le Colonel Chabert said...

the US wants the dollar down more. It is really europe, japan and china which object to this. Mainly the US is acting to try to force China to unpeg. Every stage of this pressure, Darfur is in the news. It's the oddest ongoing prewar story, Darfur, isn't it? In and out of the spotlight; pops up, vanishes. Rattling the sabres, showing how the US could go there and take China's control of the oil away.

the thing is the dollar can't crash by itself; it is very hard to say what would happen were there a dollar crisis; the whole world of capital will do everything possible to prevent it surely.

3:34 PM  
Blogger ob fusc said...

The US wants China to unpeg, because then the dollar can fall a bit (because the US is net importing from China), and it can reduce its trade deficit?

It's an interesting thing (from my fuzzy understanding), the whole uneven interconnectedness of the US and China, the way they're dependent on each other in different ways, while otherwise antagonistic. China's supply of cheaper and cheaper goods enables the US consumer to have a sense of prosperity, even at flat income levels (and enables GDP growth, and low interest rates, at the cost of increasing trade deficit and personal and national debt); and the amount the US is in hock to China, the amount of US bonds the latter holds, means the latter kind of has it by the goolies--? But does it really, given the relative military might, and under what circumstances would different elements of the power relationship begin to come into force; the military option as you say may extend not just to China itself but to its suppliers.

Interesting that Iraq had transferred its oil transactions to euros before being invaded, and that Iran is considering doing so, through its petrobourse. (which would be the first steps to precipitating a dollar collapse, and therefore unallowable by the US?)

Also on a different note that Chavez is going to supply oil to China.
http://news.google.co.uk/news/url?sa=t&ct=uk/2-0&fp=44eff6fa8eb4ac53&ei=tv3vRMfJDsPkwgHV6PW5BQ&url=http%3A//english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E1EC64A1-8BA6-4B9C-AA65-151C9D9D2566.htm&cid=0

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Blogger ob fusc said...

Chavez oil to China

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Blogger Le Colonel Chabert said...

"The US wants China to unpeg, because then the dollar can fall a bit (because the US is net importing from China), and it can reduce its trade deficit?"

the current account is the big problem. and while the devaluation of the dollar since 2001 is due largely to this, the dollars fluctuations vis a vis other majors is still driven by interest rate adjustments.

From 2000, when the dollar was very strong;

"If other economies continue to stagnate and needed structural reforms are postponed, however, U.S. investments will continue to yield higher returns than those in other countries; foreign investors will continue to acquire U.S. and dollar-denominated assets; and the current account deficit will grow wider. When a change in investor sentiment comes, it could be dramatic. What would happen if the dollar depreciated by a significant amount, say 25 percent?

Although such a depreciation would quickly close the current account deficit, U.S. consumers would shift from buying imported goods and services to buying those made domestically, and U.S. labor markets would tighten further. The combination of rising wages and a falling dollar likely would drive up prices. The U.S. Federal Reserve would probably raise interest rates, putting the brakes on the U.S. economy. A rapid change in the dollar's value and a raising of interest rates would likely disrupt financial markets, with knock-on effects on consumption and business investment in the United States and throughout the world.

Even though a sudden depreciation would be costly, it still would not put the current account on a sustainable trajectory. Absent structural changes in the U.S. and other economies, a sudden, significant depreciation would set off a dangerous cycle: the trade and current account deficits initially would narrow but they would soon widen again, as structural instabilities returned to the fore. Moreover, because a depreciation would affect only the trade component of the current account, its impact would wear off more quickly than did the impact of the depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s." - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/mann.htm


"It's an interesting thing (from my fuzzy understanding), the whole uneven interconnectedness of the US and China, the way they're dependent on each other in different ways, while otherwise antagonistic. China's supply of cheaper and cheaper goods enables the US consumer to have a sense of prosperity, even at flat income levels (and enables GDP growth, and low interest rates, at the cost of increasing trade deficit and personal and national debt); and the amount the US is in hock to China, the amount of US bonds the latter holds, means the latter kind of has it by the goolies--? "

Yes, but what clarifies the picture is only when we remove these national frameworks and see there is another framework overlain, which is the dominant interest of US led finance capital, not quite the same as the US national interest, certainly not the same as the interest of the US treasury, and with a certain specific relation to chinese industrial capitalism...

a good topic for blog posting!

the best book really still is The Global Gamble, by Peter Gowan.

6:32 AM  
Anonymous ob fusc said...

Very interesting, thankyou-- and I can't claim to have computed it all, but I'm going to, piecemeal, with the aid of Wikipedia!
Also, do you know any good introductions to macroeconomics, which kind of connect the dots in the way you do - ie current account deficit leads to devaluing of the currency, etc - in textbooks and Wikipedia, things are so compartmentalised, I find these connections often aren't made...
Thanks for the Gowan tip, I've put it in my Amazon basket. It's missed my most recent book-spree (David Harvey, Ilan Pappe, Meiksins Wood - very excited about them), so will have to get it next impulse-buy.
I also found this paper by Gowan online, and on the first page I find this statement:

...the most politically important target struck [on 9/11] was the American state as a political force in the world. The distinction between the two [state and citizens] is not a trivial one: there is no pre-given identity between the US state and the mass of its citizens... etc

Which sounds very much like what you're saying, very interesting.

12:52 AM  
Blogger Le Colonel Chabert said...

"Also, do you know any good introductions to macroeconomics, which kind of connect the dots"

That's a good question which stumps me: there is a lot on the web; if you have no litttrary interest in Keynes' own writing I would say just start with the standard freshman econ text, paul samuelson "economics" alongside ernest mandel, intro to marxist economic theory. To see these things in action, read fxstreet.com headlines because it's all bankers' and analysts' reaction to each announcement of data, each policy change, so you can easily follow how the common wisdom works and also see how the common wisdom doesn't tell you that much.

6:01 AM  
Anonymous ob fusc said...

Thanks very much!! I do have the Mandel book actually, coincidentally, I'm about halfway through. Enjoying it. I'll have a look at Samuelson too... I've got a tartly titled book 'Macroeconomics' by GF Stanlake which I think gives the neoclassical basics, which I need to go through... I took economics at A-Level (Bac), but just like the French I studied at A-Level, I find it little use for the real world...

Fxstreet looks good, it reminds me of when I used to work at a bank and the intranet page there ran continual financial stories and updates, which I used to lap up, as they were far more interesting than the work I was doing. This was my introduction to the crazy world of capital accumulation, the way businesses which shape our world could be bought and sold for numbers on a screen, percolating into bankers' pockets via unfathomable bonuses. Seeing the way the world is ordered and arranged according to the predicates of finance, from the other side, so to speak, where it's a hugely exciting and profitable game, rather than a mostly disastrous and ruinous vortex.

Thankyou for the tips as always......

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